Big bets, bricks and behavioural signals

In late 2020, British Land made a move that many in the property world thought was madness.

The media was calling time on the office. Businesses were rolling out remote work policies. Headlines predicted an irreversible shift away from city centres. While much of the commercial real estate sector hit pause, or worse, downsized, British Land pressed ahead with some of its biggest and boldest developments in years.

It wasn’t optimism. It was data. And belief in behaviour.

When the industry was predicting the ‘death of the office’, British Land was defining the future of work.

Listening when everyone else was reacting

At the height of the pandemic, vacancy rates across UK offices surged, and initially, they were slow to rebound. In London, they reached 8.7% by 2023, the highest in more than a decade, according to The Times. 

As office demand plummeted, major players across the sector followed suit. Landsec slowed development plans. Canary Wharf Group pivoted toward residential and life sciences. Even global players like IWG retrenched, closing sites or freezing expansion. The narrative was set: the office was over.

But British Land's leadership team, newly helmed by CEO Simon Carter, wasn’t convinced.

'We tried to be a data-led organisation, rather than following the herd, and we could see that businesses were still taking space. We felt there would be a lack of supply because others weren’t developing.'

Behind the scenes, British Land was reading the behavioural signals others missed: return-to-office mandates, gradual recovery in commuting patterns, and a growing realisation among corporates, by the second lockdown, that culture, collaboration, and innovation don’t thrive over Zoom.

Betting on bricks – and on people

So while others paused, British Land went long on the future of the office.

Two massive projects, 1 Broadgate and 2 Finsbury Avenue (2FA), proceeded at pace. These weren’t just more of the same. They reimagined what the modern office needed to be. Wellness-led design, flexible configurations, outdoor spaces, ‘social lobbies’, quiet booths, and even a cycle ramp straight into the building.

They weren’t building for the past, they were building for a post-pandemic workforce with new expectations and different rhythms.

And it worked.

1 Broadgate, which completes later this year, is already 96% let. Tenants include global law firms and real estate giants, exactly the kind of high-value occupiers whose choices shape markets. These buildings at Broadgate are among four “campuses” across the capital which combine office buildings with shops, gyms, bars, restaurants and communal open spaces.

And what’s more, these new spaces, conceived and funded during the pandemic, are now commanding market-leading rates of over £100 per sq ft.

Why this was more than just a property play

British Land’s approach offers a masterclass in what we call planarian behaviours, the ability to continuously regenerate by listening to the signals and adapting before others do.

Let’s be clear: this wasn’t just contrarianism for its own sake. It was a sharp, instinct-backed strategy driven by long-term thinking and behavioural insight.

While many in the sector scrambled to retrofit their portfolio to the new world of hybrid working, British Land redesigned from the ground up. Literally.

They saw that the return to office wouldn’t be about quantity of space, it would be about quality of experience that the space enabled. The winners wouldn’t be those with the most floorspace, but those offering the best solutions.

Not one bet, but two

This investment wasn’t the only big call that British Land took during the pandemic. They also took an early view on the future of retail. 

With many predicting the death of the high street driven by a non-reversible acceleration of ecommerce adoption, the British Land team went all in on out-of-town retail parks, divesting their interest in shopping centres, committing a further £711m since the pandemic. 

Again, this contrarian approach paid off. They now have 99% occupancy across their portfolio. The highest ever rate achieved. At a time when many high streets and shopping centres continue to look battle-worn following the lasting impact of lockdowns and the ongoing cost of living crisis. 

The market is catching up, but the first mover advantage is real

Fast forward to 2025, and we’re seeing early vindication of that bet.

• Office vacancy rates in the UK have started to fall for the first time since 2020.

• Prime City of London rents are rising again, driven by demand for high-spec space.

• Companies are re-evaluating their hybrid models, with many shifting to a “4 days in” norm.

  
  

British Land, once seen as swimming against the tide, is now being recognised as a pioneer. Not because they predicted the future perfectly, but because they understood that behaviour doesn't always follow headlines. It follows human needs.

Final thought

In uncertain times, it’s tempting to follow the herd or freeze entirely. British Land did neither. They listened. They analysed. They backed their insight with action.

And they’re now reaping the rewards of being early, brave, and right.

It’s a valuable reminder for any organisation: success doesn’t come from playing it safe. It comes from reading the signals others ignore, and having the courage to reimagine products and services, business models and revenue streams.